El Niño Disrupts Arctic Polar Vortex, Threatening UK Cold Snap
Met Office forecasts colder conditions as stratospheric warming event could become earliest on record, despite current drought in parts of England and Wales.
Carla Rooney
El Niño is disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex above the Arctic.
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings alter the jet stream. This increases the chance of blocked weather patterns, bringing colder northerly or easterly winds and Arctic air. The weakening polar vortex disrupts the jet stream, allowing cold, arctic air to travel southwards towards Europe.
The Met Office states the El Niño currently developing in the Pacific is the "strongest in living memory." The polar vortex last broke down in November in 1968.
The strongest in living memory.
This potential colder outbreak could briefly bring wintry showers to the northern UK. The nature of any such event remains very uncertain. Surface-level impacts on the UK also remain uncertain, despite the increased chances of cold weather from SSW events.
Historical records show major SSW events occurred on November 28 in both 1969 and 2025. The "Beast from the East" in February and March 2018 brought temperatures as low as −14°C to parts of the UK.
Much of England and Wales currently experience drought conditions. This contrasts sharply with October, which was wetter than usual across the UK, seeing 138.9mm of rain and exceeding the 1991-2020 average by 13 per cent.
Storm Austen hit on October 23, bringing an amber warning for powerful winds and heavy rain over Cornwall and parts of Devon. A yellow alert covered much of central and southern England. High pressure will dominate in the near term, bringing largely settled and dry conditions across the country.
Long-term forecasts show "a very high chance of one of these events happening again later on in the winter."